Ran across this bit of doom & gloom the other day. Pretty scary sounding stuff … and it was almost putting me off my Grape-Nuts, when a loose ceiling tile fell, striking me on the head.

In my concussion-induced state, my mind flashed-back to a dusty college library … an old newspaper article …

Life After the Computer Crash
(October, 1957)

Get ready for global catastrophe.

Our society is increasingly dependent on computers.

Although the scientific advances that brought us the miracle of the UNIVAC are indeed impressive, the simple fact of the matter is that we are witness to a growing worldwide dependence on computers that will ultimately lead to our own demise.

Every facet of human society is increasingly dependent on computing power for survival. From weather predictions – which rely on high-powered number crunching to accurately provide the information which keeps our children safe (you do like to know when that hurricane is coming, don’t you?) – to the data processing needed to develop new medicines and other necessary technologies, to mundane roles such as payroll processing for our largest corporations, our world’s insatiable appetite for computing power will only grow as the decades pass.

So what? you may say … we’ll just build more UNIVACs.

This is a nice idea, but completely impractical once you understand the economics and physics involved.

One UNIVAC system provides processing power for 1900 operations per second … and while that is impressive, a typical application (such as a weather program) consumes *ALL* of those resources for hours at a time. Estimates are that the Rand Corporation has less than fifty of the systems built and sold. Competition for this limited – and precious – resource is already heating up, due in part to the prohibitively high purchase price. Most universities cannot afford sole ownership of these amazing (but expensive) machines.

Given the projections of worldwide demand for computing power over the next three decades, it would take divine intervention in order to avert the global disaster that “Peak Computing” will bring.

To give you some idea of the scope of the problem, consider the following scenario. Based on projected demand for computing power, by the year 2005 we would need to have a computer in 3 out of every 4 homes in America. (Bear in mind that the UNIVAC requires almot 400 square feet of floor space, which would consume over one-third of the living space in an average home.)

Furthermore, the UNIVAC system costs over $1 Million. Each.

In order to have even a shred of hope at averting the disaster of “Peak Computing” … our country alone would need 100 million computers … they would have to be small enough to fit on a desktop … *and* they would each need computing power on the order of ONE THOUSAND TIMES the speed and capacity of today’s finest corporate and university systems. They would also have to be so inexpensive as to be within the means of any average Americam family … not as a necessity, but as a luxury item.

It should be *OBVIOUS* by now that sitting around “wishing” for such a miraculous, utopian future is a fool’s game. Even if there were some sort of “Law” which guaranteed processing power would increase while at the same time system cost would DECREASE (like *that’s* going to happen) it would require an economic infrastructure – not to mention an investment boom the likes of which our nation has never seen … companies going public every week … billions of dollars poured into the pockets of budding entrepreneurs by the thousands … one might as well believe in fairies.

So … buy your guns now. Start stockpiling your food & water, and consider expanding your bomb shelter. When the world begins to run out of computing power, it’s going to get ugly.

… and then I woke up.